MADISON, WI — Wisconsin’s run of wet and dry swings this spring has made it harder to judge when severe weather will peak this summer, according to the Wisconsin State Climatology Office. Climate outreach specialist Amanda Latham said the state has seen an unusual pattern she described as “precipitation ping-pong,” with one very wet month followed by a very dry one.
Latham said Wisconsin usually sees severe weather build in May and peak in June or July, but this year has not followed that pattern. April was the wettest on record, and state records show more than 280 warnings for tornadoes, storms and flash floods were issued that month, the most since warning records began in 1986.
Tornadoes arrived early
The state has already had a busy start to tornado season. As of June 15, Wisconsin had recorded 31 confirmed tornadoes, which is more than it typically sees in an entire year.
Latham said warm temperatures help create unstable air, which can fuel stronger storms. She also said severe-weather seasons in Wisconsin appear to be starting earlier and lasting later than they did decades ago.
Last week, a tornado touched down in Belleville, and officials reported no injuries or deaths.
June rain varies widely
June has brought more heavy rain to parts of central and southern Wisconsin, where some areas have picked up 5 to 6 inches so far this month. Other places have stayed drier, including parts of the Green Bay area and northwestern Wisconsin.
Latham said that kind of back-and-forth pattern is something the climatology office has seen before. The office uses the phrase “precipitation ping-pong” to describe the way the state can bounce between very wet and very dry stretches.
She said shifting jet stream patterns, along with a warming climate, may be part of what is driving the swings.
Heat outlook still uncertain
Temperatures may stay a little below average through the rest of June, but Latham said July and August are still uncertain. Wisconsin’s average summer temperature is about 76 degrees, and she said the rest of the season could go “either way.”
The state climatology office noted that Wisconsin hit the 90s on June 19 and 22 last year, with heat index values topping 100 degrees. It also says the hottest day of the year in Wisconsin is typically July 19, when the statewide average high reaches 82.2 degrees.
Latham added that La Crosse tends to see the most 90-degree days among several Wisconsin cities, averaging 17.5 such days each year.
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